Lake Erie Harmful Algal Bloom Experimental Forecast

The demonstration page below provides Lake Erie HAB forecast information using the upgraded Lake Erie 3D model. This model improves on the current operational forecast by including vertical mixing of Microcystis algae. For that reason, nowcast and forecast information on this page may be different than on the current Lake Erie PDF forecasts. For questions and comments, please contact the HAB team at HAB@noaa.gov.


Imagery Analysis & Forecasts - Last Updated




Bloom Position Forecast -

This map models bloom position from date of satellite imagery out to 96 hours from date of publication, using water currents data from the Lake Erie Operational Forecast System (LE-OFS). Potential for bloom movement is forecast in 3-dimensions with HAB Tracker, a hydrodynamic model using satellite imagery and currents to project bloom transportation.


Observed Bloom Position at


True color imagery from collected ().


Forecast Lake Erie Conditions at

Each point represents a location used by the HAB Tracker

  • Wind speed + direction: Wind speed and direction from Marblehead, Ohio. Blooms mix through the water column at wind speeds greater than 15 knots (or 7.7 meters per second).
  • Surface water temperature: Microcystis blooms are temperature dependent. > 68°F is the optimal temperature for growth.
  • Surface water currents: Surface currents, in conjunction with wind, compel mixing of surface bloom concentrations.


Forecast Bloom Position & Vertical Mixing Forecast at

Forecast position of bloom using LEOFS modelled currents to move the bloom from the image. Surface scum is mixed through the water column by wind action across the lake surface. Each point represents a location used by HAB Tracker's model. Click a point to visualize bloom depth in the water column by date and modeled concentration.


Additional Resources