Lake Erie Harmful Algal Bloom Forecast



NOAA provides forecasts for seasonal blooms of blue-green algae (cyanobacteria) in Lake Erie, typically from July to October when warmer water creates favorable bloom conditions. For more information, please browse our FAQ's.



   


Imagery Analysis & Forecasts - Last Updated




Bloom Position Forecast -

This map models bloom position from date of satellite imagery to a minimum of 96 hours from date of publication, using water currents data from the Lake Erie Operational Forecast System (LEOFS). Potential for bloom movement is forecast in 3-dimensions with a hydrodynamic model using satellite imagery and currents. The modeled output does not contain clouds. Gray coloring indicates the absence of chlorophyll.


Observed Bloom Position at ?


True color imagery from collected .


Forecast Lake Erie Conditions at ?

Each point represents modeled conditions at a location used by the bloom forecasts.

  • Wind speed + direction: Blooms mix through the water column at winds greater than 15 knots (or 7.7 meters per second). Present and forecast winds?.
  • Surface water temperature: Microcystis blooms are temperature dependent. > 68°F is the optimal temperature for growth. Present and forecast water temperature.
  • Surface water currents: Bloom concentrations are mixed and transported by surface winds and currents. Present and forecast currents?.

Source: Present and forecast lake conditions provided by the Lake Erie Operational Forecast System (LEOFS).


Forecast Bloom Position & Vertical Mixing Forecast at ?

Forecast position of bloom using LEOFS modelled currents to move the bloom from the image. Surface scum is mixed through the water column by wind action across the lake surface.

The modeled output does not contain clouds. Gray coloring indicates the absence of chlorophyll. Each point represents a location used by the bloom forecast. Click a point to visualize bloom depth in the water column by date and modeled concentration.




2020 Lake Erie HAB Products?








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