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NOAA LogoTropical Depression ISAAC QuickLookCO-OPS Logo
Posted: 17:00 CDT 08/30/2012

NOAA and NOAA Partnership Stations Relative to the Storm
Storm Analysis

No further QuickLooks will be posted for this storm unless oceanographic conditions warrant and/or the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues a new tropical storm or hurricane warning for the U.S. or its territories.

As of 08/30/2012 17:00 CDT, water levels along the Gulf coast from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana have leveled off or are falling, and generally range between 0.8 to 3.1 feet above tidal predictions.  Water levels at New Canal Station, LA within Lake Pontchartrain remain elevated and measure 5.2 feet above tidal predictions.

Winds from across the region generally range from 10 to 20 knots with higher gusts up to 25 knots.

Water levels in bays and associated waterways may include impacts from hydrological forces, including rainfall runoff.  For additional hydrological information see NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services or National Weather Service Forecast Office. Future information on this system can be found in public advisories issued by the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

For additional data, please see the Center for Operational Oceanographic Products & Services website. For information on Highest Astronomical Tide (HAT), NAVD88 and other datums, please see Tidal Datums.  For more information or archived products and reports, please see the Storm QuickLook Homepage.

Analyst: CMF

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SELECT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ADVISORY INFORMATION:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 39
400 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

...SLOW-MOVING ISAAC WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA...
...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL COASTAL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC WAS LOCATED ABOUT 35 MI WNW OF MONROE LOUISIANA OR ABOUT 40 MI SSE OF EL DORADO ARKANSAS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER LOUISIANA TODAY...OVER ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY...AND OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY SATURDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS 995 MB.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
EVEN THOUGH ISAAC IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL STORM...DANGEROUS HAZARDS FROM STORM SURGE...INLAND FLOODING...AND TORNADOES ARE STILL OCCURRING.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH TONIGHT...AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TOMORROW. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAGES...AT NEW CANAL STATION LOUISIANA...A STORM SURGE OF MORE THAN 5 FEET IS PERSISTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND A STORM SURGE VALUE OF NEAR 4 FEET CONTINUES AT WAVELAND MISSISSIPPI.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 TO 14 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOUISIANA....MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...ARKANSAS...AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LOWLAND FLOODING. THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE SPREADING EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-WEST AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.

TORNADOES...TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING ON SATURDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
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THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT34 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


For the purpose of timely release, data contained within this QuickLook have undergone a "limited" NOS Quality Assurance/Control; however, the data have not yet undergone final verification. All data subject to NOS verification.

 

New Canal Station, LA - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 09/01/2012 07:00 (CDT)
Relative to MLLW: Observed: 3.11 ft. Predicted: 0.24 ft. Residual: 2.87 ft.
Historical Maximum Water Level: Sep 13 2008, 4.96 ft. above MHHW

Shell Beach, LA - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 09/01/2012 07:00 (CDT)
Relative to MLLW: Observed: 1.58 ft. Predicted: 0.85 ft. Residual: 0.73 ft.
Historical Maximum Water Level: Sep 1 2008, 8.78 ft. above MHHW

Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 09/01/2012 07:00 (CDT)
Relative to MLLW: Observed: 1.42 ft. Predicted: 0.88 ft. Residual: 0.54 ft.
Historical Maximum Water Level: Sep 1 2008, 9.16 ft. above MHHW

Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 09/01/2012 07:06 (CDT)
Relative to MLLW: Observed: 1.37 ft. Predicted: 0.52 ft. Residual: 0.85 ft.
Historical Maximum Water Level: Sep 1 2008, 4.9 ft. above MHHW

Chickasaw Creek, AL - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 09/01/2012 06:54 (CDT)
Relative to MLLW: Observed: 1.21 ft. Predicted: 0.68 ft. Residual: 0.53 ft.
Historical Maximum Water Level: n/a

Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 09/01/2012 07:00 (CDT)
Wind Speed: 1 knots Gusts: 2 knots Direction: 255° T

Dauphin Island, AL - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 09/01/2012 07:00 (CDT)
Wind Speed: 4 knots Gusts: 4 knots Direction: 161° T

Pilots Station East, SW Pass, LA - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 09/01/2012 07:00 (CDT)
Wind Speed: 4 knots Gusts: 5 knots Direction: 174° T

Grand Isle, LA - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 09/01/2012 07:00 (CDT)
Wind Speed: 4 knots Gusts: 5 knots Direction: 168° T

LAWMA, Amerada Pass, LA - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 09/01/2012 07:00 (CDT)
Wind Speed: 4 knots Gusts: 5 knots Direction: 146° T

Freshwater Canal Locks, LA - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 09/01/2012 07:00 (CDT)
Wind Speed: 6 knots Gusts: 7 knots Direction: 162° T

Pensacola, FL - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 09/01/2012 07:00 (CDT)
Wind Speed: 2 knots Gusts: 3 knots Direction: 19° T

Panama City, FL - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 09/01/2012 07:06 (CDT)
Wind Speed: 1 knots Gusts: 3 knots Direction: 81° T

New Canal Station, LA - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 09/01/2012 07:00 (CDT)
Wind Speed: 1 knots Gusts: 2 knots Direction: 184° T

Shell Beach, LA - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 09/01/2012 07:00 (CDT)
Wind Speed: 4 knots Gusts: 5 knots Direction: 168° T

Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 09/01/2012 07:00 (CDT)
Wind Speed: 4 knots Gusts: 4 knots Direction: 170° T

Dock C, Port of Pascagoula, MS - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 09/01/2012 07:06 (CDT)
Wind Speed: 1 knots Gusts: 2 knots Direction: 204° T

Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 09/01/2012 07:00 (CDT)
Relative to MLLW: Observed: 1.29 ft. Predicted: 0.65 ft. Residual: 0.64 ft.
Historical Maximum Water Level: Sep 1 2008, 3.79 ft. above MHHW

Dauphin Island, AL - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 09/01/2012 07:00 (CDT)
Relative to MLLW: Observed: 1.04 ft. Predicted: 0.76 ft. Residual: 0.28 ft.
Historical Maximum Water Level: Sep 16 2004, 5.94 ft. above MHHW

Pilots Station East, SW Pass, LA - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 09/01/2012 07:00 (CDT)
Relative to MLLW: Observed: 1.35 ft. Predicted: 0.86 ft. Residual: 0.49 ft.
Historical Maximum Water Level: Aug 29 2005, 6.22 ft. above MHHW

Grand Isle, LA - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 09/01/2012 07:00 (CDT)
Relative to MLLW: Observed: 1.41 ft. Predicted: 0.79 ft. Residual: 0.62 ft.
Historical Maximum Water Level: Aug 29 2005, 4.54 ft. above MHHW

LAWMA, Amerada Pass, LA - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 09/01/2012 07:00 (CDT)
Relative to MLLW: Observed: 1.97 ft. Predicted: 1.08 ft. Residual: 0.89 ft.
Historical Maximum Water Level: Sep 12 2008, 5.92 ft. above MHHW

Freshwater Canal Locks, LA - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 09/01/2012 07:00 (CDT)
Relative to MLLW: Observed: 2.20 ft. Predicted: 1.19 ft. Residual: 1.01 ft.
Historical Maximum Water Level: Sep 12 2008, 7.98 ft. above MHHW

Pensacola, FL - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 09/01/2012 07:00 (CDT)
Relative to MLLW: Observed: 0.92 ft. Predicted: 0.79 ft. Residual: 0.13 ft.
Historical Maximum Water Level: Sep 18 1926, 7.41 ft. above MHHW

Panama City, FL - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 09/01/2012 07:06 (CDT)
Relative to MLLW: Observed: 1.03 ft. Predicted: 0.88 ft. Residual: 0.15 ft.
Historical Maximum Water Level: Oct 4 1995, 5.72 ft. above MHHW