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Posted: 06:00 AST 07/10/2013
NOAA and NOAA Partnership Stations Relative to the Storm

Storm Analysis

No further QuickLooks will be posted for this storm unless oceanographic conditions warrant and/or the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues a new tropical storm or hurricane warning for the U.S. or its territories.

As of 07/10/2013 06:00 AST, water levels in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico are at or near predicted tide levels. Winds are light with gusts up to 15 knots.  Barometric pressure is steady across the region.

Water Level and Meteorological plots available below are updated automatically.  A line denoting Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) is displayed to provide an approximate indication of when flooding inundation may occur.  Water level predictions relative to Mean Lower Low Water are:

Lameshur Bay, St. John, VI: Next predicted high tides are 0.8 ft (0.25 m) at 07/10/2013 22:55 AST and 0.3 ft (0.09 m) at 07/11/2013 09:58 AST.

Lime Tree Bay, VI: Next predicted high tides are 0.7 ft (0.22 m) at 07/10/2013 23:18 AST and 0.7 ft (0.21 m) at 07/11/2013 23:20 AST.

Charlotte Amalie, VI: Next predicted high tides are 0.8 ft (0.25 m) at 07/10/2013 22:56 AST and 0.3 ft (0.09 m) at 07/11/2013 09:24 AST.

Esperanza, Vieques Island, PR: Next predicted high tides are 0.8 ft (0.23 m) at 07/10/2013 22:34 AST and 0.7 ft (0.22 m) at 07/11/2013 22:51 AST.

Yabucoa Harbor, PR: Next predicted high tides are 0.6 ft (0.19 m) at 07/10/2013 22:37 AST and 0.6 ft (0.18 m) at 07/11/2013 22:36 AST.

Magueyes Island, PR: Next predicted high tides are 0.7 ft (0.21 m) at 07/10/2013 23:23 AST and 0.7 ft (0.20 m) at 07/11/2013 23:27 AST.

Mayaguez, PR: Next predicted high tides are 0.9 ft (0.26 m) at 07/10/2013 09:58 AST and 1.3 ft (0.41 m) at 07/10/2013 22:36 AST.

Mona Island, PR: Next predicted high tides are 0.8 ft (0.26 m) at 07/10/2013 22:22 AST and 0.8 ft (0.25 m) at 07/11/2013 22:51 AST. 

For additional data, please see the Center for Operational Oceanographic Products & Services website. For more information or archived products and reports, please see the Storm QuickLook Homepage.

Analyst:CMF

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SELECT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ADVISORY INFORMATION:

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER  10
500 AM AST WED JUL 10 2013

...CHANTAL WEAKENING...
...MAY BE DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA ARE DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI
* TURKS AND CAICOS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED ABOUT 260 MI WSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO OR ABOUT 140 MI S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CHANTAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 29 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY...NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY THURSDAY...AND NEAR CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA INDICATE THAT CHANTAL HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED...AND THE SYSTEM COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER THIS MORNING...AND HAITI LATER TODAY.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS TONIGHT...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY EARLY THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE...ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES...WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA.

FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE

For the purpose of timely release, data contained within this QuickLook have undergone a "limited" NOS Quality Assurance/Control; however, the data have not yet undergone final verification. All data subject to NOS verification.



 
Lameshur Bay, St. John, VI - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 07/11/2013 09:36 (AST)
Relative to MLLW: Observed: 0.41 ft. Predicted: 0.28 ft. Residual: 0.13 ft.
Historical Maximum Water Level: Aug 30 2010, 1.71 ft. above MLLW


Lime Tree Bay, VI - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 07/11/2013 09:30 (AST)
Relative to MLLW: Observed: 0.42 ft. Predicted: 0.24 ft. Residual: 0.18 ft.
Historical Maximum Water Level: Nov 17 1999, 2.59 ft. above MLLW


Lime Tree Bay, VI - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 07/11/2013 09:30 (AST)
Barometric Pressure: 1016.9 mb


Charlotte Amalie, VI - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 07/11/2013 09:30 (AST)
Wind Speed: 6 knots Gusts: 10 knots Direction: 65° T


Esperanza, Vieques Island, PR - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 07/11/2013 09:36 (AST)
Relative to MLLW: Observed: 0.50 ft. Predicted: 0.29 ft. Residual: 0.21 ft.
Historical Maximum Water Level: Aug 22 2011, 1.78 ft. above MLLW


Esperanza, Vieques Island, PR - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 07/11/2013 09:36 (AST)
Barometric Pressure: 1017.3 mb


Magueyes Island, PR - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 07/11/2013 09:30 (AST)
Relative to MLLW: Observed: 0.41 ft. Predicted: 0.18 ft. Residual: 0.23 ft.
Historical Maximum Water Level: Sep 22 1998, 2.26 ft. above MLLW


Magueyes Island, PR - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 07/11/2013 09:30 (AST)
Barometric Pressure: 1017.0 mb


Mayaguez, PR - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 07/11/2013 09:36 (AST)
Wind Speed: 3 knots Gusts: 4 knots Direction: 226° T


Mona Island, PR - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 07/11/2013 09:36 (AST)
Relative to MLLW: Observed: 0.36 ft. Predicted: 0.33 ft. Residual: 0.03 ft.
Historical Maximum Water Level: Dec 23 2010, 2.06 ft. above MLLW


Lameshur Bay, St. John, VI - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 07/11/2013 09:36 (AST)
Barometric Pressure: 1017.6 mb


Lime Tree Bay, VI - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 07/11/2013 09:30 (AST)
Wind Speed: 11 knots Gusts: 15 knots Direction: 110° T


Charlotte Amalie, VI - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 07/11/2013 09:30 (AST)
Relative to MLLW: Observed: 0.40 ft. Predicted: 0.30 ft. Residual: 0.10 ft.
Historical Maximum Water Level: Sep 16 1995, 3.72 ft. above MLLW


Charlotte Amalie, VI - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 07/11/2013 09:30 (AST)
Barometric Pressure: 1017.7 mb


Esperanza, Vieques Island, PR - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 07/11/2013 09:36 (AST)
Wind Speed: 9 knots Gusts: 14 knots Direction: 127° T


Yabucoa Harbor, PR - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 07/11/2013 09:36 (AST)
Relative to MLLW: Observed: 0.36 ft. Predicted: 0.14 ft. Residual: 0.22 ft.
Historical Maximum Water Level: n/a


Magueyes Island, PR - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 07/11/2013 09:30 (AST)
Wind Speed: 5 knots Gusts: 10 knots Direction: 134° T


Mayaguez, PR - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 07/11/2013 09:36 (AST)
Relative to MLLW: Observed: 1.00 ft. Predicted: 0.84 ft. Residual: 0.16 ft.
Historical Maximum Water Level: Jul 13 2010, 2.17 ft. above MLLW


Mayaguez, PR - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 07/11/2013 09:36 (AST)
Barometric Pressure: 1024.1 mb


Mona Island, PR - Return to List


Last Observed Sample: 07/11/2013 09:36 (AST)
Barometric Pressure: 1017.0 mb